Beitrag vom 28.09.2017

ROAPE Review of African Political Economy

Rwanda’s GDP Growth Figures

Rwanda’s statistical office has just published the GDP growth figures for the second quarter of 2017 on its website. Roape.net’s blogger on Rwanda reports:

The most notable feature of the GDP figures is that final household consumption is reported to have decreased by 9% year on year, even as total GDP is said to have grown by 4%. A 9% decrease in total household consumption (meaning an 11-12% decrease in per capita consumption, assuming 2-3% population growth) would indicate a catastrophic deterioration in household welfare in the midst of supposed economic growth. This calls for a thorough explanation from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) as to what is causing this very worrying and apparently contradictory (not to say implausible) situation.

An alternative explanation for this sudden and unexplained decrease in final household consumption is that NISR has been made aware of the discrepancies revealed in roape.net blogposts between household consumption estimates provided by the National Account Statistics (NAS) and those provided by Household Surveys (HHS), and is now trying to bring household consumption figures in the NAS down artificially to the levels estimated in HHS so as to make its GDP growth estimates more credible. However, the magnitude and apparently contradictory and unexplained nature of this sudden contraction in final household consumption is highly suspicious.

These new official figures thus strengthen our concerns regarding the credibility and reliability of official NAS data in Rwanda. The only way to restore credibility in these figures would be for NISR to publish all of its raw data and calculations and allow academics or other independent experts to independently verify the numbers. Donors, the IMF and the World Bank should stop quoting official GDP figures coming out of Rwanda until they have been able to independently verify the government’s claims.