Beitrag vom 02.09.2022

Weltneuvermessung

Russia and Africa: the Invasion of Ukraine Leads to the Next Major Crisis

Robert Kappel

Everything that was true until recently is no longer valid. Russia’s war against Ukraine has consequences for the entire world. In particular, low-income countries and countries that need to import food and energy have been plunged into crisis. Food, oil and gas exporters, on the other hand, benefit. African countries are experiencing the negative effects even more than other regions of the world. Following the consequences of the pandemic and the climate crisis, Africa is once again being dragged into an externally induced crisis, with hunger and poverty continuing to rise.

Russia’s Continental Agenda

The Russian government emphasised four strategic goals for its relations with Africa following the Russia-Africa Summit in 2019.

• First, Russia wants to use African states to expand its power on the global stage. African countries represent the largest voting group in the UN and provide Russia with a pool of allies against the continued dominance of the United States and other Western powers. The voting behaviour of African countries shows that this has succeeded to some extent.

• Secondly, Russia is keen to obtain access to African countries’ raw materials and natural resources. Russian mining companies extract diamonds in Angola and platinum in Zimbabwe. The aluminium producer Rusal owns mines in Guinea, which has the largest bauxite deposits in the world. The increasingly close military ties with the Central African Republic (gold, diamonds, uranium) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (diamonds, copper, cobalt and coltan) were meant to secure Russian mining companies access in these two countries. Russia is launching joint economic projects with African countries to secure access to Africa’s natural resources. Although Russian-African trade has more than doubled in the last five years, it is quite small at around $20 billion per year—less than a quarter of this trade with sub-Saharan Africa.

• Thirdly, Russia is seeking to expand its dominance as a supplier of arms exports and security in Africa. Russia has become Africa’s largest arms provider, accounting for 35 per cent of arms exports to the continent. Since 2015, Russia has signed over 20 new bilateral military cooperation agreements with African states. Russia currently has military agreements with a total of 40 African countries. For example, the armed forces of Algeria, Angola and Ethiopia are almost entirely equipped with Russian-made weapons and military instruments. Russian weapons are attractive to African states because they are cheaper than American weapons. In addition, more than 2 500 military personnel from African countries have graduated from Russian military academies in the last five years.

• And fourthly, Russia wants to support the development of energy and electricity supply by Russian companies. Companies such as Gazprom, Lukoil, Rostec and Rosatom have invested on the continent. In 2018, for example, Rosneft signed a contract to supply Ghana with liquefied natural gas. Rosneft also has oil and gas projects in Algeria, Egypt and Mozambique, while Lukoil operates in Cameroon, Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria. There is an opportunity for Russian energy companies to expand production at lower costs than in Russia. One example is the joint venture between Russia and Zimbabwe’s Pen East Ltd to develop one of the world’s largest platinum metal deposits. The state atomic energy agency Rosatom is building a nuclear power plant in Egypt. It has also signed an agreement to build two more power plants in Nigeria and has nuclear energy agreements with several other African countries, including Ghana and Kenya. According to the African Development Bank, Russian investment in Africa peaked at $20 billion in 2008. Less than 1% of total foreign direct investment came from Russia in 2017. Although this is a small investment compared to France, the UK or China, Russia has secured significant influence over key economic sectors in Africa through its energy and commodity investments, making Russia a geostrategic player. This is also reflected in its significant role in Africa’s food markets.

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